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Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010

This paper examines the likely growth of U.S. GDP in the decade beginning in 2010. I analyze the two components of the rise in GDP over this ten year period: (1) the recovery from the substantially depressed level of economic activity at the start of the decade; and (2) the rise in potential GDP that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148647

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

Stock, James H. - 2010

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761277

The Aftermath of the 1992 Erm Breakup : Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?

Gordon, Robert J. - 2021

, all without any evidence of extra inflation. The results in this paper turn the conventional wisdom on its head. While the … over into extra inflation, leaving only 20 percent remaining for extra real GDP growth. Virtually 100 percent of the … nominal exchange rate depreciation passed through into higher import prices, and extra inflation would have been even more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219692

Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks

Mertens, Karel - 2010

We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139130

Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis to Emerging Markets : Evidence on the Decoupling-Recoupling Hypothesis

Dooley, Michael P. - 2010

We find that emerging markets appeared to be somewhat insulated from developments in U.S. financial markets from early 2007 to summer 2008. From that point on, however, emerging markets responded very strongly to the deteriorating situation in the U.S. financial system and real economy. Policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152377

Why is Growth Better in the United States than in Other Industrial Countries

Feldstein, Martin S. - 2017

Although the official statistics imply that the rate of growth of real GDP in the United States has declined in recent years, it has still been substantially higher than the real growth rates in Europe and the other industrial countries, leading to higher real per capita incomes. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960796

On the Existence and Interpretation of the "Unit Root" in U.S. Gnp

DeLong, J. Bradford; Summers, Lawrence H. - 2021

We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224961

Gallman'S Annual Output Series for the United States, 1834-1909

Rhode, Paul W. - 2021

This paper presents Robert Gallman's classic, but heretofore unpublished annual series for US national product over the 1834-59 and 1869-1909 periods. The 'Volume 30' series, reported as decadal averages, underlie much of what we know about American income growth and capital formation before...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239344

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output

Engel, Charles M.; Rogers, John H. - 2021

We investigate the possibility that the large current account deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the current account is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249706

Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-Wwii U.S. Government Debt/Gdp Dynamics

Hall, George J. - 2010

.S. government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio made by inflation, growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148376

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