The covariance between US Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was … of these state variables enables the model to ...fit the changing covariance of bond and stock returns. Log bond yields … concavity of the yield curve - the level of intermediate-term bond yields, relative to the average of short- and long-term bond …

Value stocks have higher exposure to innovations in the nominal bond risk premium, which measures the markets … when nominal bond risk premia are low and declining, are associated with lower future dividend growth rates on value minus … growth and with lower future output growth in the short term. Because of this new nexus between stock and bond returns, a …

We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We … stock and bond return correlations, but that other factors, especially liquidity proxies, play a more important role. The … macro factors are still important in fitting bond return volatility; whereas the "variance premium" is critical in …

This paper uses the factor augmented regression framework to analyze the relation between bond excess returns and the … statistically significant predictive power for excess bond returns. We show how a bias correction to the parameter estimates of … real activity for excess bond returns is robust even after accounting for finite sample inference problems. Forecasts of …

Workhorse Gaussian affine term structure models (ATSMs) attribute time-varying bond risk premia entirely to changing … preferences. The new model has an ATSM representation with analytical bond prices making it empirically tractable. We find that … time variation in bond term premia is predominantly driven by the price of risk, especially, the price of expected …

This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by …

Empirical evidence suggests that excess bond returns are forecastable by financial indicators such as forward spreads … not tie the forecastable variation in excess bond returns to underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, as would be expected … analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond returns …