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Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments
Groen, Jan J. - 2010
In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147616
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The Billion Prices Project : Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research
Cavallo, Alberto - 2016
New data-gathering techniques, often referred to as “Big Data” have the potential to improve statistics and empirical research in economics. In this paper we describe our work with online data at the Billion Prices Project at MIT and discuss key lessons for both inflation measurement and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995985
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How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?
Byrne, David M. - 2015
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast from the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024503
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Price and Quality Dispersion in an Offshoring Market : Evidence from Semiconductor Production Services
Byrne, David M. - 2014
This paper studies price and quality differences across international intermediate input suppliers. We develop price measures that account for (i) differences in product characteristics, (ii) unobserved quality differences, and (iii) pure (frictional) price dispersion across suppliers. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062082
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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?
Chen, Yu-Chin - 2010
We show that quot;commodity currencyquot; exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759436
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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2010
Commodity prices are back. This paper looks at connections between monetary policy, and agricultural and mineral commodities. We begin with the monetary influences on commodity prices, first for a large country such as the United States, then smaller countries. The claim is that low real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760515
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Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration Since 1700
Jacks, David S. - 2009
of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The … been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro … never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764828
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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernàndez, Andrés - 2016
intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979352
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Financialization in Commodity Markets
Chari, Varadarajan V. - 2017
Recent experience has given rise to the financialization view: increased trading in commodity fu­tures markets leads to an increase in the level and volatility of spot prices. We construct a large panel data set which includes commodities with and without futures markets. The data do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948088
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Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen - 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999461