Showing 1 - 10 of 463
The most important conclusion of this paper is that the growth rate of the money supply influences the U.S. inflation …, help to explain why U.S. inflation was so low in 1976 and why it accelerated so rapidly in 1978. Granger causality tests … indicate that lagged exchange rate changes influence inflation, but lagged inflation does not cause exchange rate changes. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224206
variables also significantly reduce inflation in both the short and long run. Given the actual changes in these factors in the … inflation in the latter half of the last decade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228613
good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the `rational expectations … of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235269
matters for stabilization policy is the rate of inflation, not the rate of wage change. This paper provides new estimates of … result in the paper is that wage changes do not contribute statistically to the explanation of inflation. Deviations in the … growth of labor cost from the path of inflation cause changes in labor's income share, and changes in the profit share in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218329
rate are associated with disinflations, and large decreases with run-ups in inflation. These facts are consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757669
A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760666
This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period 1962-97 there has been a noticeable increase in firm-level volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly correlations among individual stocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763341
Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767723
price and wage setting. The positive correlation of inflation and unemployment in the 1970s and again in the 1990s is … nominal GDP, higher inflation caused by adverse supply shocks implies slower real GDP growth and higher unemployment. This … “triangle” model based on inflation inertia, demand, and supply worked well to explain why inflation and unemployment were both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913361
We develop an estimator for latent factors in a large-dimensional panel of financial data that can explain expected excess returns. Statistical factor analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has problems identifying factors with a small variance that are important for asset pricing....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918632