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with economic theory and hence rises andquot; falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In … recent years powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed macroeconomic forecasting is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763631
This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession which was unlike most other post-war recessions in the US in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075147
Modern neoclassical theories of the business cycle posit that aggregate fluctuations in consumption and employment are the consequence of dynamic optimizing behavior by economic agents who face no quantity constraint. In this paper, we estimate an explicit model :f this type. In particular, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132070
We develop a theory of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) that accounts for workers' job-search behavior and firms … determine whether tightness is inefficiently high or low and whether UI raises or lowers tightness. The theory has implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136021
This article reviews macroeconomic models with heterogeneous households. A key question for the relevance of these models concerns the degree to which markets are complete. This is because the existence of complete markets imposes restrictions on (i) how much heterogeneity matters for aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118124
This article surveys the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions. Financial frictions lead to persistence and when combined with illiquidity to non-linear amplification effects. Risk is endogenous and liquidity spirals cause financial instability. Increasing margins further restrict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105795
There has been considerable progress in developing macroeconomic models of banking crises. However, most of this literature focuses on the retail sector where banks obtain deposits from households. In fact, the recent financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession featured a disruption of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001200
In this paper, I study asset prices in a two-agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited participation in the stock market and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151373
It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. This could be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neither of which seems plausible. Instead we argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152622
We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is productivity-related: if the virus forces firms to shed labor beyond a certain threshold, productivity suffers. The second component is a credit market imperfection: because lenders...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833117