This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to...

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

The failure of many paintings to sell in art auctions indicates the presence of reserve prices set by sellers. This paper examines the relationship between sale rates and price surprises over time in art auctions. Using data on contemporary and impressionist art, we show that while sale rates...

This paper provides a choice theoretic, general equilibriumaccount of the balance of payments adjustment process and the determinationof national price levels in a world comprised of countries populated byrational households. Balance of payments adjustment dynaniics arise in theequilibrium of...

This paper presents a model of the interaction between invention and learning by doing. Learning depends upon invention in that learning by doing is viewed as the serendipitous exploration of the finite productive potential of invented technologies. At the same time, the profitability of costly...

This paper explores the relationship between the closely linked concepts of E-stability and least-squares learnability, featured in recent work by Evans and Honkapohja (1999, 2001), and the minimum-state-variable (MSV) solution defined by McCallum (1983) and used by many researchers for rational...

The paper presents an intertemporal general equilibrium model with rationing in the product market, in which stationary sunspot equilibria are shown to exist, indicating the possibility of fluctuations in economic activity simply due to self-fulfilling variations in economic agents'...

Movements in asset prices are a major risk confronting individuals. This paper establishes new asset pricing results when agents differ in risk preference, time preference and/or expectations. It shows that risk tolerance is a critical concept driving savings decisions, consumption allocations,...