Showing 1 - 10 of 1,169
Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within … such a model, surprise increases of risk lead to a wait-and-see policy for investment at the firm level and a decrease in … the size of firm-level risk fluctuations. We find that time-varying firm-level risk on its own is unlikely to be a major …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128887
This paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117561
We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075854
Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability high-impact catastrophes. The paper shows that having an uncertain multiplicative parameter, which scales or amplifies exogenous shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775805
We show that there exists significant heterogeneity across US households in how uncertain they are in their expectations regarding personal and macroeconomic outcomes, and that uncertainty in expectations predicts households' choices. Individuals with lower income or education, more precarious...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906788
This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The shock to this public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760694
between the maximum daily return over the past one month (MAX) and expected stock returns. Average raw and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764338
We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048614
distributions of risks give rise to components of equilibrium prices that differ from the risk prices widely used in asset pricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222314
We estimate the degree of amp;apos;stickinessamp;apos; in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772369