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. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models … of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the process of determining payoffs. We label this process of … on whether the improvements in prediction enable automated decision-making. We discuss the implications of improved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929013
In public sector procurement, social welfare often depends on the time taken to complete the contract. A leading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757589
In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky decision making can explain … enough to approximate Kahnenman and Tversky's prospect theory and that for certain parametric values will yield the expected … explain the decision-making behavior of the majority of our subjects. Surprisingly, we find that the choice behavior of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135363
Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders; for younger women, such tests are discouraged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138773
Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119785
Traditional economic models of vaccination assume that agents free-ride on the vaccination decision of others. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074645
We use two different approaches to measure intertemporal preferences. First we employ the classical method of inferring preferences from a series of choices (subjects choose between $X now or $Y in D days). Second we adopt the novel approach of inferring preferences using only response time data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758348
-inconsistency strengthen the normative appeal of the active-decision enrollment regime. However, financial illiteracy favors default enrollment … over active decision enrollment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762513
In this paper we analyze the problem of whether and/or when to replace a leader (agent) when no monetary rewards are available, and it is the leader's competence rather than effort that is being evaluated. The only decisions that the leader takes over time are whether to undertake risky but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050303
This paper provides a unified framework for interpreting a wide range of interactions models which have appeared in the economics literature. A formalization taken from the statistical mechanics literature is shown to encompass a number of socioeconomic phenomena ranging from out of wedlock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218553