beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in … emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging economies are more concerned about their reputation and tend to ride … the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies …

and pre-World War I gold standard eras …

in the recent literature on financial crises: international capital movements and credit growth. Neither factor is …

absorption in a world of real shocks and nominal stickiness. A simple model shows how a lack of flexibility can be discerned in …