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Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
reservations about the impact of foreign speculators on both expectedquot; returns and market volatility. We propose a cross … depositary receipts country funds and other financial instruments, in an extranational market and market volatility in emerging … statistically weak. The effects on volatility and correlation are less robust.quot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774923
We model the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns as a latent vector autoregressive (VAR) process to study … although the conditional correlation between the mean and volatility is negative, the unconditional correlation is positive due …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787157
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
-shifts of heterogeneous durations affect the volatility of dividend news. We estimate tightly parameterized specifications with … likelihood than the classic Campbell and Hentschel (1992) specification, while generating volatility feedback effects 6 to 12 … times larger. We show in an extension that Bayesian learning about stochastic volatility is faster for bad states than good …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012754523
high volatility are followed by periods of low volatility. For instance, the turbulent 1970s were followed by the much more … tranquil times of the great moderation from 1984 to 2007. Modeling these movements in volatility is important to understand the … different mechanisms proposed in the literature to generate changes in volatility similar to the ones observed in the data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135053
inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761277
This paper compares the role of stochastic volatility versus changes in monetary policy rules in accounting for the … time-varying volatility of U.S. aggregate data. Of special interest to us is understanding the sources of the great … build a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with both stochastic volatility and parameter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144506
-2001, the corresponding standard deviation was 1.6%. This paper investigates this large drop in the cyclical volatility OF real … volatility using a large number of U.S. economic time series and a variety of methods designed to describe time-varying time … explanations for this 'great moderation.' Taken together, we estimate that the moderation in volatility is attributable to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311853
We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131235