Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

techniques, I search for an impact of size on the level of income, inflation, material well-being, health, education, the quality …

expectations of the time-paths of future short interest rates, monetary policy, inflation rates and currency depreciation rates …

fiscal operations, inflation, interest rate, and indexes of selected leading indicators. Quarterly series are used, each …

A key policy question is: How high an inflation rate should central banks target? This depends crucially on the costs … of inflation. An important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion. Workhorse New … Keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large. An increase in steady state inflation from 0% to 10% yields a …

Inflation equals the product of two terms: an extensive margin (the fraction of items with price changes) and an … intensive margin (the average size of those price changes). The variance of inflation over time can be decomposed into … intensive margin is the sole source of inflation changes in staggered time-dependent pricing models. We use micro data collected …