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This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for a broad range of commodities, including energy, precious and base metals, and agricultural commodities. In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146511
producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128612
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150436
The last decade brought substantial increased participation in commodity markets by index funds that maintain long positions in the near futures contracts. Policy makers and academic studies have reached sharply different conclusions about the effects of these funds on commodity futures prices....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059085
, including influential studies identifying price bubbles in periods of high volatility. Here we consider a model of the market … for a storable commodity in which price expectations are unbounded. We derive its implications for price time series and … empirical tests of price behavior. In this model commodity price is equal to marginal consumption value, and hence bubbles as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082152
Real rigidities that limit the responsiveness of real marginal cost to output are a key ingredient of sticky price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757994
and import price dynamics in the aftermath of large devaluations. In particular, desired inventory adjustment in response … to a sudden, large increase in the relative price of imported goods creates a short-term trade implosion, an immediate …, temporary drop in the value and number of distinct varieties imported, as well as a slow increase in the retail price of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759539
The simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously, and expectations are rational preclude the existence of "business cycles," that is, of serially correlated deviations of output from trend. This paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014135401
In a recession, jobs are destroyed and inventories are liquidated. I concentrate on the intertemporal mechanisms that result in economy-wide job destruction and inventory runoffs. Forces that raise the real interest rate -- especially temporarily -- also cause destruction and runoffs. I consider...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226980
A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate GNP and inventories in the U.S., 1947-1986. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories, and are largely responsible for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243442