Recent work by Said and Dickey (1984 ,1985) , Phillips (1987), and Phillips and Perron(1988) examines tests for unit roots in the autoregressive part of mixed autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIHA) models (tests for stationarity). Monte Carlo experiments show that these unit root tests...

I translate familiar concepts of discrete-time time-series to contnuous-time equivalent. I cover lag operators, ARMA models, the relation between levels and differences, integration and cointegration, and the Hansen-Sargent prediction formulas

We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets....

Studies find price increases for additions to the S&P 500 index but no decreases for deletions. Additions come with good earnings news, suggesting these studies are not just measuring an indexing effect. We develop a regression discontinuity design using Russell Indices for cleaner...

Models used to guide policy, as well as some empirical studies, suggest that the effect of housing wealth on consumption is large and greater than the wealth effect on consumption from stock holdings. Recent theoretical work, in contrast, argues that changes in housing wealth are offset by...

We reexamine the time-series relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock market returns. To proxy for the conditional mean return, we use the implied cost of capital, computed using analyst forecasts. The usefulness of this proxy is shown in simulations. In empirical analysis, we...

In the asset pricing literature, time-variation in market expected excess return captured by financial ratios like dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational mispricing. Extending the work on asset allocation and...

A number of countries have delayed the opening of their capital markets to internationalquot; investment because of reservations about the impact of foreign speculators on both expectedquot; returns and market volatility. We propose a cross-sectional time-series model that attempts toquot;...

The slope factor is constructed from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons and predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster policy easing positively predicts returns. It contains information about the speed of future monetary policy tightening and loosening, and...

We document a large decrease in autocorrelation and increase in variance of recent short-run returns on several broad stock market indexes, over the 1983-89 period, 15-minute returns went from being highly positively serially correlated to practically uncorrelated. Over the past twenty years,...