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The large trade and current account deficits of the United States cannot continue indefinitely because doing so would constitute a permanent gift to the U.S. economy. The process that will cause this gift to shrink and that will eventually cause it to reverse is a fall in the dollar. The dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759368
We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892565
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on … changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759718
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies … revised US-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995 … US-CHINA bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219694
This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and … switching is thus a possibility for China to receive a double benefit, rebalancing trade with a welfare gain. This has … countries with a trade surplus, such as China, an origin basis offers a lower tax rate on an equal yield basis and reduced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131504
The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760671
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760681
We study the consequences of protectionism for macroeconomic fluctuations. First, using high-frequency trade policy data, we present fresh evidence on the dynamic effects of temporary trade barriers. Estimates from country-level and panel VARs show that protectionism acts as a supply shock,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926407
This paper proposes a novel international transmission mechanism based on the assumption of deep habits. The term deep habits stands for a preference specification according to which consumers form habits on a good-by-good basis. Under deep habits, firms face more elastic demand functions in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778163
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771554