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the implications of the war costs themselves. Besides the unanticipated length and breadth of the military conflicts … motivations associated with war cost forecasts by comparing them with other types of aggregate forecasts, which are prone to … similar types of errors. The history of war cost forecasts suggests that increasing their frequency and transparency may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141284
This paper attempts to provide a more complete reckoning of the costs of the Iraq War, using standard economic and … underestimate the War's true costs. We estimate a range of present and future costs, by including expenditures not in the $500bn CBO … the war on the overall performance of the economy. Even taking a conservative approach and assuming all US troops return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224204
Warfare is enormously destructive, and yet countries regularly initiate armed conflict against one another. Even more surprisingly, wars are often quite popular with citizens who stand to gain little materially and may lose much more. This paper presents a model of warfare as the result of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778156
belligerents: Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. At the outbreak of the war, these nations suspended … convertibility of their currencies into gold with the promise that after the war each would restore convertibility at the old par …. However, once convertibility was suspended, the value of each currency depended on the outcome of the war. I decompose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787085
fight and endure war, the government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted policies to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955943
This paper explores the means by which warfare influences domestic commodity markets. It is argued that England during the French Wars provides an ideal testing ground. Four categories of explanatory variables are taken as likely sources of documented changes in English commodity price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139748
, are the most overt costs of war. They are also relatively short-lived. The costs of war borne by combatants and their … total present value of historical war costs have been absorbed by benefits distributed over the remaining life spans of …. Estimates of the value of injuries and deaths, while uncertain, suggest that the private burden of war borne by survivors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142072
war-exposed children subsequently have lower height-for-age Z-scores, and impacts using GPS information are 87-188% larger … in magnitude, and children in the war instigating and losing country (Eritrea) suffer more than the winning nation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031299
enmeshed in the world economy, or net oil importers, are most likely to experience adverse effects from war …We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762835
Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict with Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249345