We use a new micro data set that covers all oil fields in the world to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model of the oil industry with two alternative market structures. In the first, all firms are competitive. In the second, OPEC firms act as a cartel. This effort is a first step...

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policy before 1980, with activist monetary...

Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do...

In this paper, our aim is to develop an alternative approach to analyzing a macroeconomic model where markets do not clear. Earlier approaches have had difficulties in interpreting effective demand, a key concept in disequilibrium macroeconomics. We propose a new definition of effective demand...

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our...

This paper is a review of rational expectations models used in macroeconomic research. The purpose is to examine in some detail the differences between the models, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative models the empirical support for the models and their policy implications. The main...

In 1944 Franco Modigliani published a famous article summarizing the Keynesian model; in 1963 he extended the 1944 framework. This paper,written for a conference in honor of Modigliani, asks how the earlier papers would be modified in the light of recent developments in macroeconomics. The...