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The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle
Barsky, Robert; Miron, Jeffrey A. - 2021
Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. We document the quantitative importance of seasonal fluctuations, and we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229132
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Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data
Beaulieu, Joe; Miron, Jeffrey A. - 2021
In this paper we provide evidence on the presence of seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data. The analysis is conducted using the approach developed by Hyllebcrg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We first derive the mechanics and asyrnptotics of the HEGY procedure for monthly data and use Monte...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229151
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Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present
Hausman, Jerry A.; Watson, Mark W. - 2021
Seasonal adjustment procedures attempt to estimate the sample realizations of an unobservable economic time series in the presence of both seasonal factors and irregular factors. In this paper we consider a factor which has not been considered explicitly in previous treatments of seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248433
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Operational Time and Seasonality in Distributed Lag Estimation
Clark, Peter - 2021
The following paper discusses the analysis of some types of economic time series using an altered time scale, or operational time. It is argued that for some series, observations that are ordinarily thought of as equidistant in time are actually irregularly spaced in a more natural time scale....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217235
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Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence
Cecchetti, Stephen G.; Kashyap, Anil K.; Wilcox, David W. - 2021
Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240631
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The Economics of Seasonal Cycles
Miron, Jeffrey A. - 2021
Since macroeconomists first began the systematic study of aggregate data, they have grappled with the fact that most economic time series exhibit substantial seasonal variation. In general, macroeconomists abstract from this seasonal variation, both in their models of cyclical behavior and in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247003
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The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis : Does it Create Distortions?
Christiano, Lawrence J.; Todd, Richard M. - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237299
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The Cyclical Response of Advertising Refutes Counter-Cyclical Profit Margins in Favor of Product-Market Frictions
Hall, Robert E. - 2012
According to the standard model, advertising is remarkably sensitive to profit margins. Firms advertise to stimulate …-and-matching map a decline in wages to higher unemployment. But a rise in profit margins should expand advertising by a lot. Really a … lot. Advertising should be highly countercyclical. Instead, it is somewhat procyclical. The ratio of advertising spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100979
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Medium Term Business Cycles
Comin, Diego A. - 2011
Over the postwar, the U.S., Europe and Japan have experienced what may be thought of as medium frequency oscillations between persistent periods of robust growth and persistent periods of relative stagnation. These medium frequency movements, further, appear to bear some relation to the high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125764
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Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles
Zarnowitz, Victor; Ozyildirim, Ataman - 2022
A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321580