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We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
Many ways exist to measure and model financial asset volatility. In principle, as the frequency of the data increases …, the quality of forecasts should improve. Yet, there is no consensus about a true' or best' measure of volatility. In this … paper we propose to jointly consider absolute daily returns, daily high-low range and daily realized volatility to develop a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246085
We provide a first evaluation of the quality of banking stress tests in the European Union. We use stress tests scenarios and banks' estimated losses to recover bank level exposures to macroeconomic factors. Once macro outcomes are realized, we predict banks' losses and compare them to actual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964887
I count the number of times per month that the word `shortage' appears on the front page of The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times for the period 1969-1994. Using this as a general measure of shortages in the US economy, I test whether shortages help predict inflation. Using a variety of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778848
In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a useful inflation forecasting equation is difficult because of multiple sources of time variation in the inflation process, including changes in Fed policy and credibility. We propose a tightly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136739
-aged individuals. Understanding the mechanism underlying this observation is key to explaining the volatility of aggregate hours over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757916
Most major American industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the First World War were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather. Wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production; nor did the cotton harvest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757928
This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758390
1990s and thereafter. U.S. data also show a secular decline in the job destruction rate and the volatility of firm … relationship of job destruction and business volatility to unemployment flows. We find strong evidence that declines in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758431
volatility literature, namely its relative neglect of the connection between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset return … volatility. We progress by analyzing a broad international cross section of stock markets covering approximately forty countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758496