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volatility and growth. We first develop a simple growth model where firms engage in two types of investment: a short-term one and …, thus mitigating volatility. But when firms face tight credit constraints, long-term investment turns procyclical, thus … amplifying volatility. Tighter credit therefore leads to both higher aggregate volatility and lower mean growth for a given total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252334
Is monetary policy less effective at increasing real output during periods of high volatility than during normal times …? In this paper, I argue that greater volatility leads to an increase in aggregate price flexibility so that nominal … stimulus mostly generates inflation rather than output growth. To do this, I construct price-setting models with "volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080209
This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061815
-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVSt is high when perceived risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322228
This paper analyzes the effects of business cycle volatility on measures of subjective well-being, including self … perceived well-being. Greater macroeconomic volatility also undermines well-being. These effects are moderate but important …: eliminating unemployment volatility would raise well-being by an amount roughly equal to that from lowering the average level of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324116
shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948093
the 50 percent decline in cyclical volatility of output and its components, and labor input that has occurred since 1983 …. The model is successful because the volatility of productivity shocks has also declined significantly over the same time … period. We then investigate whether the decline in the volatility of the Solow Residual is due to changes in the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014059408
volatility of U.S. GDP growth beginning in 1984. Determining whether the source is good luck, good policy or better inventory … volatility by studying the behavior of the U.S. automobile industry, where the changes in volatility have mirrored those of the … aggregate data. We find that changes in the relative volatility of sales and output, which have been interpreted by some as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227767
efforts, several structural sources of volatility remain, and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324598
We examine whether there is a flight-to-liquidity premium in Treasury bond prices by comparing them with prices of bonds issued by Refcorp, a U.S. Government agency, which are guaranteed by the Treasury. We find a large liquidity premium in Treasury bonds, which can be more than fifteen percent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787067