exogenous business cycle fluctuations in risk which threaten to push inflation off target. This model, while an improvement on …

income, and the responsiveness of aggregate earnings, asset prices and inflation to monetary policy shocks. We quantify all …

This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by …

inflation. In the 2000s, and at least until the end of 2007, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much … milder movements in output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach Blanchard and Gali (2007a) argued that this has … reflected in large part a change in the causal relation from the price of oil to output and inflation. In order to shed light on …

rates, and the shift in the response of the term structure of interest rates to inflation and output. Although the theory …

a broad cross-section of countries inflation volatility has fallen markedly while output variability has either fallen … changes to these two factors. Our technique involves estimating movements toward an inflation and output variability …

inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after …

The paper provides an integrated analysis of globalization effects on the inflation-output tradeoff and monetary policy … flatten the Phillips curve, the tradeoff between inflation and activity. Second, the same globalization forces lead the … welfare-based monetary policy to be more aggressive with regard to inflation fluctuations, and at the same time, more benign …

A standard statistical perspective on the U.S. Great Inflation is that it involves an increase in the stochastic trend … rate of inflation, defined as the long-term forecast of inflation at each point in time. That perspective receives support …, and statistical studies of U.S. inflation dynamics. We show that a textbook macroeconomic model delivers such a stochastic …