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Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. Discounted expected utility provides a simple, coherent structure for analyzing decisions in intertemporal, uncertain environments. However, we document robust violations of discounted expected utility,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138320
and combining those signals with priors to form posteriors. These posterior expectations exhibit as-if discounting: agents … forecasting (e.g., those with more intelligence) exhibit less discounting. Agents with more domain-relevant experience exhibit … less discounting. Older agents exhibit less discounting (except those with cognitive decline). Agents who are encouraged to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960695
We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758495
At each age an organism produces energy by foraging and allocates this energy among reproduction, survival, growth, and intergenerational transfers. We characterize the optimal set of allocation decisions that maximizes reproductive fitness. Time preference (the discount rate) is derived from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770874
magnitude-dependent discounting with time distortion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024161
This paper evaluates the extent of heterogeneity in time discounting among elderly Americans, as well as its role in …, we show how differences in discounting patterns are associated with characteristics of particular importance in elderly … populations, such as serious health and mental conditions. We then relate our discounting measure to key outcome variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986294
Is the standard hyperbolic-discounting model capable of robust qualitative predictions for savings behavior? Despite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929001
ability and workers' inter-temporal preferences (discounting). We apply this test to the large observed differences in wages … and wage growth rates between smokers and non-smokers. The evidence supports the discounting hypothesis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215374
thereafter, which is inconsistent with exponential discounting but consistent with hyperbolic discounting. The implied marginal … rate of time preference declines and then rises. Estimates of the quasi-hyperbolic discounting parameter range from 0.48 to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247670
, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out …-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting … models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028066