Although most disputes between groups of people are settled peacefully, sometimes disputes result in war. This lecture … have to contend, and on the permanence of the outcome of a potential war. The lecture also contrasts the possibilities for …

interaction between the scarcity of resources and the incentives for war in the presence of limited commitment is at the center of … our theory. We show that a key parameter determining the incentives for war is the elasticity of demand. Our first result … identifies a novel externality that can precipitate war: price-taking firms fail to internalize the impact of their extraction on …

shortly after the war seem to have dissipated by 2000. While these are important outcomes to economists, by focusing on them …

We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …, suggesting that war raises oil prices by around $10 per barrel. Futures prices imply that markets expect these large immediate …

powers, the government was able to fund the war by borrowing and levying taxes. In major wars, however, there came a point …

We consider three questions related to the choice between war in Iraq and a continuation of the pre-war containment … war more or less costly for the United States than containment? Second, compared to war and forcible regime change, would … a continuation of the containment policy have saved Iraqi lives? Third, is war likely to bring about an improvement or …