Showing 1 - 10 of 3,026
implications of a broad range of U.S. tax code provisions for behavior of interest rates. Determinants of interest rate volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240983
Although it has been well established that financial volatility is related to news and macroeconomic shocks, there has … consol returns since 1729 and identify a greater-than-50% decline in volatility from the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815 … volatility. Underlying political stability under Pax Britannica seems to be a more likely explanation, however …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312511
We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term …-frequency data. We find that the yield curve fails to span yield volatility, as the systematic volatility factors are largely …-diffusive models is incapable of accommodating the observed yield volatility dynamics. An important implication is that the bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760310
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210541
This paper shows how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow … motivate our investigation, we document the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by a … sample of four emerging small open economies: Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil. We postulate a stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757576
This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774964
The central goverment now issues both nominal and iflation indexed long-term bonds in the United Kingdom. The difference in their yields provides one measure of the long-term expevted rate of inflation. The evidence suggests that higher long-term, expected , real yields are associated with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763379
This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838354
inflation-indexed yields and high short-term volatility of inflation-indexed bond returns do not invalidate the basic case for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152616
additional real returns associated with common stocks more than compensate for the volatility of prospective payouts. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215351