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previous research has indicated. That is, seasonal price movements have become more prominent in the relatively stable … in prices differs greatly by item, making it difficult to generalize about seasonal price movements. A casual reading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763733
Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138313
In a recent paper Barsky and Miron (1989) examine the seasonal fluctuations in the U. S. economy. They show that the key stylized facts about the business cycle characterize the seasonal cycle as well, and they suggest that the interpretation of many of these stylized facts over the seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223584
We show there is a strong, positive correlation across countries and industries between the standard deviation of the seasonal component and the standard deviation of the non-seasonal component of aggregate variables such as output, labor input, interest rates, and prices. After documenting this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224335
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237299
Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240631
We study twenty years of monthly production data for 11 manufacturing industries in 19 countries. Using the fact that in some countries production virtually shuts down for one summer month, together with the differences in the timing of aggregate cyclical fluctuations, we are able to learn about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252313
Since macroeconomists first began the systematic study of aggregate data, they have grappled with the fact that most economic time series exhibit substantial seasonal variation. In general, macroeconomists abstract from this seasonal variation, both in their models of cyclical behavior and in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247003
This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312494
quantity variables but small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229132