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the volatility of GDP growth at all frequencies. Monetary policymakers looking to a neoclassical model to provide the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767517
Stock return volatility during the Great Depression has been labeled a “volatility puzzle” because the standard …, and Jones; 1990). We investigate the “volatility puzzle” using a new series of building permits, a forward-looking measure … of economic activity. Our results suggest that the volatility of building permit growth largely explains the high level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953001
Most major American industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the First World War were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather. Wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production; nor did the cotton harvest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757928
A large literature following Ruhm (2000) suggests that mortality falls during recessions and rises during booms. The panel-data approach used to generate these results assumes that either there is no substantial migration response to temporary changes in local economic conditions, or that any...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954452
of reduced business-cycle volatility. Supply shocks accounted for 80 percent of the volatility of inflation before 1984 …This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since … the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213454
This paper investigates whether U.S. government spending multipliers differ according to two potentially important features of the economy: (1) the amount of slack and (2) whether interest rates are near the zero lower bound. We shed light on these questions by analyzing new quarterly historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043271
We argue that falling farm product prices, incomes, and spending may explain 10-30 percent of the 1930 U.S. output decline. Crop prices collapsed, reducing farmers' incomes. And across U.S. states and Ohio counties, auto sales fell most in crop-growing areas. The large spending response may be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014090935
The NBER's pre-WWI chronology of annual peaks and troughs has the remarkable implication that the U.S. economy spent nearly every other year in recession, although previous research has argued that the post-Civil War dates are flawed. This paper extends that research by redating annual peaks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310169
This study compares labor and total factor productivity (TFP) in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the very long (since 1890) and medium (since 1980) runs. During the past century, the United States has overtaken the United Kingdom and become the leading world economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149831
stimulus mostly generates inflation rather than output growth. To do this, I construct price-setting models with "volatility …Is monetary policy less effective at increasing real output during periods of high volatility than during normal times …? In this paper, I argue that greater volatility leads to an increase in aggregate price flexibility so that nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080209