liquidity and the growth slowdown in the financial centers are at their core. These global shocks trigger longer default spells …

China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We … alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version … of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000's, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and …

rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI … inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing … of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China …

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time …-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model … to quantitatively similar degrees. The estimated liquidity premium between U.S. inflation-indexed and nominal yields is …

The paper discusses policy relevant models, going from (1) chronic inflation in the 20th century after WWII, to (2 … associated with chronic deflation. The discussion highlights the importance of expectations and liquidity, and warns about the … risks of relegating liquidity to a secondary role, as has been the practice in mainstream macro models prior to the Great …

We show that stricter bank liquidity standards can trigger unintended credit booms when there is heterogeneity in … the new equilibrium. A quantitative application to China illustrates the practical relevance of the mechanisms in our …

the industry and commuting-zone levels, and then estimates the impact of the `China shock' on each job-flow type. The … China shock is accounted for by either the increase in Chinese import penetration in the U.S., or by the U.S. policy change … that granted Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status to China. We find that the China shock affects U.S. employment …

Using a new case-level dataset we document a set of stylized facts on bankruptcy in China and study how the staggered …

Models of inflation and growth in the sixties emphasized the portfolio substitution mechanism by which higher inflation … to higher growth.The empirical evidence, however, is that growth and inflation are negatively correlated. Reasons for … this negative correlation are investigated, and then embodied in a simple monetary maximizing model. Higher inflation is …