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There is a well-known set of empirical regularities that describe the experience of countries that peg their exchange rate as part of a macroeconomic adjustment program. Following the peg economies tend to experience an increase in GDP, a large expansion of production in the non-tradable sector,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228979
How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the United States. In this paper we compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249688
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and labor market policies in a small open developing country. The basic framework considers an economy with a large informal production sector and a heterogeneous work force. The labor market is segmented as a result of efficiency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308614
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia's demographic and fiscal transition … under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and … Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021019
In this paper we explore in detail the various ways by which the introduction of intermediate imports affects the comparative statics and the dynamics of adjustment in an open economy. The importance of integrating the role of intermediate imports into a theory of macro-economic adjustment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224712
We ask whether recent changes in monetary policy due to the financial crisis will be temporary or permanent. We present evidence from two surveys—one of central bank governors, the other of academic specialists. We find that central banks in crisis countries are more likely to have resorted to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981105
future receipts is called its fiscal gap.This study estimates Russia's 2013 fiscal gap at 890 trillion rubles or $28 trillion …. This longterm budget shortfall is 8.4 percent of the present value of projected GDP. Consequently, eliminating Russia … that the Russia's energy resources are finite, whereas its expenditure needs are not. Moreover, Russia is aging and facing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073203
In the recent financial crisis, macroeconomic stimuli produced mixed results across developed economies. In contrast, China's stimulus boosted real GDP growth from an annualized 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009 trough to 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010. Amidst this phenomenal response, land...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128599
Aging populations in advanced economies are placing ever-increasing demands on government spending in the form of old-age benefits. Economies that have promised substantially more benefits than they have made provision to finance are heading into a prolonged era of fiscal stress. Unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. In an earlier paper, we showed that this reasoning does...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133109