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From Boom to Bust : A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run
Jacks, David S. - 2013
This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices from 1900 to 2015 for 40 commodities, representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In so doing, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085493
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The Financialization of Commodity Markets
Cheng, Ing-Haw - 2013
The large inflow of investment capital to commodity futures markets in the last decade has generated a heated debate about whether financialization distorts commodity prices. Rather than focusing on the opposing views concerning whether investment flows either did or did not cause a price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072871
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Financialization in Commodity Markets
Chari, Varadarajan V. - 2017
Recent experience has given rise to the financialization view: increased trading in commodity fu­tures markets leads to an increase in the level and volatility of spot prices. We construct a large panel data set which includes commodities with and without futures markets. The data do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948088
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Commodity Connectedness
Diebold, Francis X. - 2017
We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949432
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Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices
Pindyck, Robert S. - 2022
The idea that wages rise relative to alternatives as job seniority accumulates is the foundation of the theory of specific human capital, as well as other widely accepted theories of compensation. The fact that persons with longer job tenures typically earn higher wages tends to support these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014074489
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Geography and Economic Development
Gallup, John Luke; Sachs, Jeffrey D.; Mellinger, Andrew D. - 2021
This paper addresses the complex relationship between geography and macroeconomic growth. We investigate the ways in … which geography may matter directly for growth, controlling for economic policies and institutions, as well as the effects … of geography on policy choices and institutions. We find that location and climate have large effects on income levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238940
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Adjustment Patterns to Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks : The Role of Exchange Rate and International Reserves Policies
Aizenman, Joshua - 2011
We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970-2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117207
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Bubble Troubles? Rational Storage, Mean Reversion and Runs in Commodity Prices
Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S. - 2013
High and volatile prices of major commodities have generated a wide array of analyses and policy prescriptions, including influential studies identifying price bubbles in periods of high volatility. Here we consider a model of the market for a storable commodity in which price expectations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082152
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Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation
Boughton, James M.; Branson, William H. - 2021
This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220414
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The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices
Pindyck, Robert S.; Rotemberg, Julio J. - 2021
This paper tests and confirms the existence of a puzzling phenomenon - the prices of largely unrelated raw commodities have a persistent tendency to move together. We show that this comovement of prices is well in excess of anything that can be explained by the common effects of past, current,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232445