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sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145250
We develop a model of investment with financial constraints and use it to investigate the relation between investment and Tobin's q. A firm is financed partly by insiders, who control its assets, and partly by outside investors. When their wealth is scarce, insiders earn a rate of return higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776954
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071507
of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The … been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro …Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764828
an increase in the level and volatility of spot prices. We construct a large panel data set which includes commodities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948088
trade, providing a natural hedge against world price fluctuations. We find the consumption terms of trade at local prices is … more volatile than at world prices, but the two are strongly positively correlated. The same commodities dominate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149826
In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147616
One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural-resource-scarce economies. In this paper we show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1971 (the base year)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235583
The paper studies the effect of additional government revenues on political corruption and on the quality of politicians, both with theory and data. The theory is based on a version of the career concerns model of political agency with endogenous entry of political candidates. The evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148374
This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate … countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for … rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761684