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We measure the size of the fiscal multiplier using a heterogeneous-agent model with incomplete markets, capital and ….We find that market incompleteness is key to determining the size of the fiscal multiplier, which is uniquely determined in … our model for any combination of fiscal and monetary policies of interest. The multiplier is 1.34 if deficit-financed and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892557
This paper takes stock of what we have learned from the “Renaissance” in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis. I first summarize the new innovations in methodology and discuss the various strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches. Reviewing the estimates, I come...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893136
The Great Recession and the Global Financial Crisis have left many developed countries with low interest rates and high levels of public debt, thus limiting the ability of policymakers to fight the next recession. Whether new fiscal stimulus programs would be jeopardized by these already heavy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948076
substitution effects, yielding uniform comparisons across models. By constraining the multiplier to tight ranges, model and prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120209
falls significantly in response to an increase in government spending. These results imply that the average GDP multiplier … lies below unity. In order to determine whether concurrent increases in tax rates dampen the spending multiplier, I use two … spending multiplier. In the second part of the paper, I explore the effects of government spending on labor markets. I find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111741
A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087434
output multiplier whereas it can produce a realistic unemployment multiplier but only under a special parameterization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144501
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for Japan, following the approach used previously for a panel of OECD countries (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2013). This approach allows multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and uses real-time forecast data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013058256
Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313664
We use Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary DSGE model, extended to include fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes, to quantify government spending multipliers in U.S. data. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017938