Quantile regression(QR) fits a linear model for conditional quantiles, just as ordinary least squares (OLS) fits a linear model for conditional means. An attractive feature of OLS is that it gives the minimum mean square error linear approximation to the conditional expectation function even...

A regression discontinuity (RD) research design is appropriate for program evaluation problems in which treatment status (or the probability of treatment) depends on whether an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. In many applications the treatment-determining covariate is discrete....

Consider a bipartite network where N consumers choose to buy or not to buy M different products. This paper considers the properties of the logit fit of the N ×M array of “i-buys-j” purchase decisions, Y = [Yij ]1≤i≤N,1≤j≤M, onto a vector of known functions of consumer and product...

A companion paper (Nelson (1992)) showed that in data observed at high frequencies, an ARCH model may do a good job at estimating conditional variances, even when the ARCH model is severely misspecified. While such models may perform reasonably well at filtering (i.e., at estimating unobserved...

Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust' policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about...

Recent empirical work in several economic fields, particularly environmental and energy economics, has adapted the regression discontinuity (RD) framework to applications where time is the running variable and treatment begins at a particular threshold in time. In this guide for practitioners,...

Estimated dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE) models are now widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics as well as for quantitative policy analysis and forecasting at central banks around the world. This paper reviews recent advances in the estimation and evaluation of DSGE models,...

Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of...

Following the work by White (1980ab; 1982) it is common in empirical work in economics to report standard errors that are robust against general misspecification. In a regression setting these standard errors are valid for the parameter that in the population minimizes the squared difference between...

We present a pricing kernel that summarizes well the main features of the dynamics of interest rates and risk in postwar U.S. data and use it to uncover how the pricing kernel has moved with the short rate in this data. Our findings imply that standard monetary models miss an essential link...