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The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas hypothesis (1973) in a times series context is the estimation of the variance conditional on past information. The ARCH model, proposed by Engle (1982), is one way of specifying the conditional variance. But the assumption underlying the ARCH...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760032
illustrate the use of this approximation, we use it to characterize the change in the nature of the Phillips curve and the money-inflation … change in money growth-inflation relation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230362
Recent research has proposed the state space (88) framework for decomposition of GNP and other economic time series into trend and cycle components, using the Kalman filter. This paper reviews the empirical evidence and suggests that the resulting decomposition may be spurious, just as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243662
We establish that the recursive, state-space methods of Kalman filtering and smoothing can be used to implement the Doan, Litterman, and Sims (1983) approach to econometric forecast and policy evaluation. Compared with the methods outlined in Doan, Litterman, and Sims, the Kalman algorithms are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248279
equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting …This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An … using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221307
, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236694
models, the relation between levels and differences, integration and cointegration, and the Hansen-Sargent prediction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104725
injection, e.g., small injections can lead to short-run deflation while large injections generate inflation. We extend our model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010714
inflation, and that the optimal monetary policy is that which maximizes real balances. We also show that the real rate of … interest is not invariant to monetary policy: inflation lowers the real rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212922
We study the long-run relation between money, measured by inflation or interest rates, and unemployment. We first … macro and monetary economics, and providing a unified theory to analyze labor and goods markets. We calibrate the model, to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759405