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Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction

Müller, Ulrich K. - 2013

Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085495

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik - 2012

Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103808

Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination : Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives

Diebold, Francis X. - 2018

Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911728

The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Diebold, Francis X. - 2010

with economic theory and hence rises andquot; falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In … recent years powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed macroeconomic forecasting is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763631

Dynamic Prediction Pools : An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance

Del Negro, Marco - 2014

We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call Dynamic Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045643

Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys

Zarnowitz, Victor - 2021

Each quarter since 1968 the National Bureau of Economic Research, in collaboration with the American Statistical Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a progress report on a comprehensive study of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231598

Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility

Diebold, Francis X. - 2016

Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983417

Counterfactuals, Forecasts, and Choice-Theoretic Modelling of Policy

Grossman, Herschel I. - 2022

This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy,and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324493

Hybrid Tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns : When Does the Tail Wag the Dog?

Bali, Turan G. - 2013

We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075854

Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty : Distribution Forecast Targeting

Svensson, Lars E. O.; Williams, Noah - 2021

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218440

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