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Money and Output : Friedman and Schwartz Revisited
Belongia, Michael T. - 2015
More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013010288
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Globally Correlated Nominal Fluctuations
Henriksen, Espen - 2009
Cyclical fluctuations in nominal variables--aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates--are documented to be substantially more synchronized across countries than cyclical fluctuations in real output. A transparent mechanism that can account for this striking feature of the nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158041
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Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks
Mertens, Karel - 2010
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139130
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The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment
Elsby, Michael - 2010
One of the strongest trends in recent macroeconomic modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend stems in large part from an influential paper by Shimer on quot;Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment,quot; i.e., the extent to which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760434
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Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire : Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News
Ilut, Cosmin L. - 2020
Concave hiring rules imply that firms respond more to bad shocks than to good shocks. They provide a unified explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro and micro data. In particular, they generate countercyclical movement in both aggregate conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856527
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Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions
Bils, Mark - 2014
Employment and hours appear far more cyclical than dictated by the behavior of productivity and consumption. This puzzle has been called “the labor wedge” — a cyclical intratemporal wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046159
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Who Suffers During Recessions?
Hoynes, Hilary Williamson - 2012
In this paper we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108253
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Unlucky Cohorts : Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets
Schwandt, Hannes - 2018
This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions especially for less advantaged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012909854
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Cyclical Unemployment : Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?
Abraham, Katharine G.; Katz, Lawrence F. - 2021
Recent work by David Lilien has argued that the existence of a strong positive correlation between the dispersion of … certain empirically satisfied conditions, aggregate demand movements alone can produce a positive correlation between G and … interpretation and a pure aggregate demand interpretation of this positive correlation. The finding that G and the volume of help …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229011
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The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies : Evidence and Theory
Shimer, Robert - 2021
generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the shock is only slightly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218505