This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data … power for future inflation. The real money gap contains more information about future inflation than the output gap and the … Eurosystem's money-growth indicator is an inferior indicator of future inflation …

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …:•Governments' budget forecasts are biased in the optimistic direction, especially among the Eurozone countries, especially when they have …-optimistic during booms.•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

of inflation. The first part of the paper considers the ways in which the EMU is likely to affect inflation and cyclical …

This paper analyzes the long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union. First, we aim at … establishingsome stylized facts relating the regional dispersion in headline inflation rates in the euro area as well as in the main … the primary cause of price and inflation differentials, with shocks to productivity in the traded sector being largely …