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Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783955
A new theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses are independent of the level of debt, the price level has to jump' to assure fiscal solvency. In this regime (which we call Fiscal Dominant), monetary policy has to work through seignorage to control the price level. If on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243371
In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run comovement between prices and real activity in the G7 countries during the postwar period using VAR forecast errors and frequency domain filters. We find that there are several patterns of the correlation coefficients that are the same in all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226911
explore the extent to which such a model can account for the short-run volatility of velocity, the negative correlation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227900
We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the U.S. using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using both an error components model as well as simpler but only approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance started to increase in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129122
We propose a novel method to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility. First, we characterize the … exploits the profusion of shocks in stochastic volatility models, is versatile and computationally tractable even in large … methods to estimate a business cycle model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100665
Forbes and Warnock (2012) identify episodes of extreme capital flow movements--surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment--and find that global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes whereas domestic macroeconomic characteristics and capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101806
structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081835
stock price reaction to news, and hence lowering the stock return volatility. Thus, in addition to uncertainty about … fundamentals, uncertainty about CEO quality is also a source of stock return volatility, which decreases over a CEO's tenure as the …'s prospects. Overall, uncertainty about management quality appears to be an important source of stock return volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085131
What drives countercyclical volatility? A large literature has documented that many economic variables are more … volatility or responsiveness is getting bigger, and these two explanations have very different policy implications. However, we … volatility shocks cannot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072777