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Using a unique 10-year panel that includes more than 13,300 expected stock market return probability distributions, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773122
We analyze a hand-collected sample of 166 prominent bribery cases, involving 107 publicly listed firms from 20 stock markets that have been reported to have bribed government officials in 52 countries worldwide during 1971-2007. We focus on the initial date of award of the contract for which the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107995
The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154539
The 2008 financial crisis did not precipitate global retaliatory trade intervention, in seeming contrast to the Great Depression in 1930s. This paper discusses the influence of model structure in optimal tariff (OT) calculations in explaining this puzzle. We emphasize how earlier literature...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001775
future spot exchange rates. This result implies that there have been opportunities for speculative profit during the post … existence of opportunities for speculative profit is explored. The question answered in the paper is the following: if there … were no opportunities for speculative profit, would exchange rates have been more stable? The answer is yes. This answer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231440
The headline numbers appear to show that even as banks and financial intermediaries suffered large credit losses in the financial crisis of 2007-09, they raised substantial amounts of new capital, both from private investors and through government-funded capital injections. However, on closer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128263
This paper examines what we have learned and how we should change our thinking about monetary policy strategy in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It starts with a discussion of where the science of monetary policy was before the crisis and how central banks viewed monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130559
-slump macroeconomic cycles. During both crises, world trade collapsed faster than world incomes and the trade decline was highly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133067
In this paper I use a panel data set to investigate the mechanics of sudden stops of capital inflows and current account reversals. I am particularly interested in four questions: (a) What is the relationship between sudden stops and current account reversals? (b) To what extent does financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133169
Fire sales are forced sales of assets in which high-valuation bidders are sidelined, typically due to debt overhang problems afflicting many specialist bidders simultaneously. We overview theoretical and empirical research on asset fire sales, which shows how they can arise, how they can lead to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134890