Showing 1 - 10 of 2,415
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071507
of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The … been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro …Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764828
sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145250
an increase in the level and volatility of spot prices. We construct a large panel data set which includes commodities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948088
trade, providing a natural hedge against world price fluctuations. We find the consumption terms of trade at local prices is … more volatile than at world prices, but the two are strongly positively correlated. The same commodities dominate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149826
, the role of biofuels in determining recent high corn and other agricultural commodity prices, as well as their volatility … industrial demand for corn, contributing to both higher prices and greater price volatility. But turbulence in recent economic … vary over time in ways that are observable in data. Price volatility and "subsidy incidence" also depend on which regime is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035869
This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices from 1900 to 2015 for 40 commodities, representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In so doing, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085493
This paper analyzes whether commodity futures prices traded in the United States reveal information relevant to stock prices of East Asian economies including China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. We find significant and positive predictive powers of overnight futures returns of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071915
The large inflow of investment capital to commodity futures markets in the last decade has generated a heated debate about whether financialization distorts commodity prices. Rather than focusing on the opposing views concerning whether investment flows either did or did not cause a price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072871
The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075796