Showing 1 - 10 of 151
We examine the role of generalized constant gain stochastic gradient (SGCG) learning in generating large deviations of an endogenous variable from its rational expectations value. We show analytically that these large deviations can occur with a frequency associated with a fat tailed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129136
The concept of Economic Reform is described as a planned shift from one, Pareto inefficient, but quasi-stable, equilibrium (or 'trap') to a new Pareto superior equilibrium which is, or is designed to become, stable too. The concept is applied to recent 'shock' stabilization programs, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135342
This paper uses the marginal treatment effect (MTE) to unify the nonparametric literature on treatment effects with the econometric literature on structural estimation using a nonparametric analog of a policy invariant parameter; to generate a variety of treatment effects from a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099673
like wages or GDP growth. Applied econometrics has since evolved to prioritize the estimation of specific causal effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963183
I discuss the econometrics and the economics of past research on the effects of minimum wages on employment in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911093
Over the last two decades, the literature on comparative development has moved from country-level to within-country analyses. The questions asked have expanded, as economists have used satellite images of light density at night and other big spatial data to proxy for development at the desired...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941961
This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling 1-minute-ahead return forecasts using the entire cross section of lagged returns as candidate predictors. The LASSO increases both out-of-sample fit and forecast-implied Sharpe ratios. And, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945609
In this paper, I review the literature on the formulation and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a special emphasis on Bayesian methods. First, I discuss the evolution of DSGE models over the last couple of decades. Second, I explain why the profession has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757950
This paper presents the econometric approach to causal modeling. It is motivated by policy problems. New causal parameters are defined and identified to address specific policy problems. Economists embrace a scientific approach to causality and model the preferences and choices of agents to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759383
We consider a general class of nonlinear optimal policy problems involving forward-looking constraints (such as the Euler equations that are typically present as structural equations in DSGE models), and show that it is possible, under regularity conditions that are straightforward to check, to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760557