This paper develops a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the foreign exchange market extending the standard textbook model in two respects. First, capital account transactions are explicitly incorporated into the model, and secondly, 'rational' speculative behaviour is also introduced. At a...

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as:...

This paper, written as a chapter for a Handbook of International Economics, reviews developments in the theory of international monetary economics from the late 1960's through the early 1980's. Following a review of the operation of the monetary mechanism of balance of payments adjustment in the...

Trending current accounts pose a challenge for intertemporal open-economy macro models. This paper shows that a two-country representative-agent business cycle model is able to explain the historical time-paths of the US and Japanese current accounts, both of which display trends but in opposite...

We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample,...

The paper assesses the costs and benefits of active international reserve management (IRM), shedding light on the question of how intense should IRM be for an emerging market. In principle, an active IRM strategy could lower real exchange rate volatility induced by terms of trade shocks; provide...

This paper analyzes the behavior of the current account and the exchange rate in the British economy during the 1970's, and discusses the outlook, as influenced by the availability of oil revenues, for exchange rate developments during the 1980's.Both trade and exchange rate behavior are...

Policy discussions in Japan have increasingly recognized the important role of land values and land-use patterns in Japanese macroeconomic adjustment. In Japan in recent years, land wealth constitutes more than half of financial wealth, a proportion that is much higher than in the United States...

An econometric portfolio balance model of an open economy, incorporating exchange rate, price, and current account dynamics, is derived and estimated.The usual stability conditions do not guarantee a unique rational expectations solution, and several proposals for resolving this situation are...

I estimate two factor models of Swiss exchange rates during the FirstWorldWar. I have data for five of the primary belligerents: Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. At the outbreak of the war, these nations suspended convertibility of their currencies into gold with the promise...