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Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts … input into the government budgeting-making process would probably reduce official forecast errors for budget deficits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988513
Central banks have evolved for close to four centuries. This paper argues that for two centuries central banks caught up to the strategies followed by the leading central banks of the era; the Bank of England in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and the Federal Reserve in the twentieth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947026
The European Monetary Union is stuck in a severe balance-of-payments imbalance of a nature similar to the one that destroyed the Bretton Woods System. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy have suffered from balance-of-payments deficits whose accumulated value, as measured by the Target...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118098
In spite of the mystique behind a central bank's balance sheet, its resource constraint bounds the dividends it can distribute by the present value of seignorage, which is a modest share of GDP. Moreover, the statutes of the Federal Reserve or the ECB make it difficult for it to redistribute...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087884
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates more vigorously in the recent recession than the European Central Bank did. By comparison with the Fed, the ECB followed a more measured course of action. We use an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773305
The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761892
When Stage III of EMU begins on January 1, 1999, member countries will irrevocably lock exchange rates, and interbank payments in euros will commence. Will the ensuing respite from Stage II instabilities be permanent or only the eye of the storm? Can Stage III itself be subject to an attack that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763602
liquidity crises and bank runs. Cooperation among reserve banks was essential for the cohesion and stability of the US monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051745
While the ECB helped mitigate the euro crisis in the aftermath of Lehman, it has stretched its monetary mandate and moved into fiscal territory. This text describes and summarizes the crucial role played by the ECB in the intervention spiral resulting from its bid to manage the crisis. It also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918640
A European central banking institution will be an essential feature of the final stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union. The EC Committee of Central Bank Governors has recently produced a Draft Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank. The draft...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222223