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-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011919
Consensus forecasts for the global economy over the medium and long term predict the world's economic gravity will substantially shift towards Asia and especially towards the Asian Giants, China and India. While such forecasts may pan out, there are substantial reasons that China and India may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045644
This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243423
This paper revisits the relationship between health and growth in light of modern endogenous growth theory. We propose a unified framework that encompasses the growth effects of both the rate of improvement of health and the level of health. Based on cross-country regressions over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146942
Using Monte Carlo simulations, this paper evaluates the bias properties of common estimators used in growth regressions derived from the Solow model. We explicitly allow for measurement error in the right-hand side variables, as well as country-specific effects that are correlated with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231612
In this paper I try to move away from the Extreme Bounds method of identifying" Instead of analyzing the" extreme bounds of the estimates of the coefficient of a particular variable distribution. My claim in this paper is that, if we do this, the picture emerging from the" empirical growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217599
Using country- and region-level data, I investigate the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Africa during 1985-2000. Results differ depending on the variation used and the estimation method. Between estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation suggest a positive significant effect of HIV/AIDS...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220972
This paper questions current empirical practice in the study of growth. We argue that much of the modern empirical growth literature is based on assumptions concerning regressors, residuals, and parameters which are implausible both from the perspective of economic theory as well as from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222634
current and future inflation innovations to revalue government debt, reducing reliance on distorting taxes; (2) the role of … inflation in optimal fiscal financing increases with the average maturity of government debt; (3) as average maturity rises, it … is optimal to tradeoff inflation for output stabilization; (4) inflation is relatively more important as a fiscal shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072342
This paper discusses three policy tools to mitigate jobless recoveries during financial crises: inflation, real … of inflation is sizably lower real wages. Hence, inflation does not prevent wage earners as a whole from getting hit by …/nontradables), from output peak to recovery point, displays a statistically significant relationship with inflation or jobless recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072345