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policies will adjust. Temporarily explosive debt has no effect on inflation if households expect all adjustments to occur … targeting inflation to stabilizing debt, then debt feeds directly into the path of inflation and monetary policy can no longer … control inflation. News that reduces expected primary surpluses can bring future inflation into the present, well before the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129225
a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward … pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The … distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136559
. Inflation may be positive throughout, so the absence of deflation is not evidence against a liquidity trap. Output, on the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120966
Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an … explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy …. The weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125561
current and future inflation innovations to revalue government debt, reducing reliance on distorting taxes; (2) the role of … inflation in optimal fiscal financing increases with the average maturity of government debt; (3) as average maturity rises, it … is optimal to tradeoff inflation for output stabilization; (4) inflation is relatively more important as a fiscal shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072342
This paper discusses three policy tools to mitigate jobless recoveries during financial crises: inflation, real … of inflation is sizably lower real wages. Hence, inflation does not prevent wage earners as a whole from getting hit by …/nontradables), from output peak to recovery point, displays a statistically significant relationship with inflation or jobless recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072345
In this paper we investigate the relationship between loose monetary policy, low inflation, and easy bank credit with … policy, low inflation, and bank credit has on house, stock and commodity prices. We review the historical narratives on asset … inflation or "easy" credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073939
Two strands of the literature suggest that PPI inflation, rather than CPI inflation, should be the targeting variable … in a monetary policy rule. The distinction between these two rules would only be important if the two inflation indices … do not co-move strongly. The first contribution of this paper is to document that the two inflation gauges did co …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927035
We develop the theory of price-level determination in a range of models using both ad hoc policy rules and jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policies and discuss empirical issues that arise when trying to identify monetary-fiscal regime. The article concludes with directions in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001761
This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151648