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Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics using instrumental variables econometrics and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use because of an econometric tragedy of the commons bias: each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131513
If there was any time to expect a large peace-time multiplier effect from federal spending in the states, it would have …. Using panel data methods we estimate a multiplier, defined as the change in per capita state economic activity in response … to an additional dollar per capita of federal funds. The state per capita personal income multiplier with respect to per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135808
We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135878
government purchases multiplier. But equally crucial is the size of the government purchases multiplicand--the change in … government purchases of goods and services that the multiplier actually multiplies. Using new data from the Bureau of Economic … government purchases multiplier, changes in government purchases have had no material effect on the growth of GDP since the time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136548
countries, (ii) the fiscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rates but is zero …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136746
in 1941, particularly in the second half of that year. As a result our preferred government spending multiplier is 1 ….80 multiplier is relevant to situations like 2009-10 when capacity constraints are absent across the economy.Two sets of new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137986
shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138770
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120206
substitution effects, yielding uniform comparisons across models. By constraining the multiplier to tight ranges, model and prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120209
analysis is that the question "what is the fiscal policy multiplier" is an ill-posed one. There is no unconditional fiscal … policy multiplier. The effect of fiscal policy on output is different depending on the different debt dynamics, the different … and an average fiscal multiplier is of very little use to describe the effect of exogenous shifts in fiscal policy on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121730