Showing 1 - 10 of 477
This paper uses propensity score methods to address the question: how well can an observational study estimate the treatment impact of a program? Using data from Lalonde's (1986) influential evaluation of non-experimental methods, we demonstrate that propensity score methods succeed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221090
The recent experimental evaluation of the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) program found negative effects of training on the earnings of disadvantaged male youth and no effect on the earnings of disadvantaged female youth. These findings provided justification for Congress to cut the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243373
Empirical research on the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) has found that consumption growth is excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income. This finding is interpreted as strong evidence against the PIH. We propose an explanation for apparent excess sensitivity that is based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014196816
We have seen in the past decade a sharp increase in the extent that companies use data to optimize their businesses. Variously called the `Big Data' or `Data Science' revolution, this has been characterized by massive amounts of data, including unstructured and nontraditional data like text and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918102
Can algorithms assist firms in their decisions on nominating corporate directors? We construct algorithms to make out-of-sample predictions of director performance. Tests of the quality of these predictions show that directors predicted to do poorly indeed do poorly compared to a realistic pool...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923716
A forecasting comparison is undertaken in which 49 univariate forecasting methods, plus various forecast pooling procedures, are used to forecast 215 U.S. monthly macroeconomic time series at three forecasting horizons over the period 1959 - 1996. All forecasts simulate real time implementation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218715
We use measures of neural activity provided by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test the "realization utility" theory of investor behavior, which posits that people derive utility directly from the act of realizing gains and losses. Subjects traded stocks in an experimental market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036251
model of time-varying labor income risk and study the implications of stochastic covariance between labor income and … dividends for the dynamics of the risk premiums on financial wealth and human capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127979
Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within … such a model, surprise increases of risk lead to a wait-and-see policy for investment at the firm level and a decrease in … the size of firm-level risk fluctuations. We find that time-varying firm-level risk on its own is unlikely to be a major …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128887
-generating strategy typically lowers the fund's risk-adjusted excess return due to frictions such as price pressure. When the manager is … via both management and incentive fees, we show that (i) the high-powered incentive fees encourage excessive risk taking … sufficiently poor fund performances substantially curtail managerial risk-taking, provide strong incentives to de-leverage, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128908