The paper examines a simple model in which exogenous political risk creates uncertainty about tariffs. The model predicts a relation between consumption and tariffs that differs radically from that implied by models without asset markets or political risk. Given the probability distribution of...

This paper presents a simp1e example in which incomplete asset markets createincentives for buyers and sellers to sign contracts that specify a pricefunction which differs from the spot market equilibrium price function. Theprice function can exhibit downward stickiness in nominal prices, In...

Does an observation constitute stronger evidence for a theory if it was made after rather than before the theory was formulated, when it may have influenced the theory's construction? Philosophers have discussed this question (of quot;novel confirmationquot;) but have lacked a formal model of...

We show that international trade in goods is the main determinant of international equity portfolios and offers a compelling -- theoretically and empirically -- resolution of the portfolio home bias puzzle. The model implies that investors can achieve full international risk diversification if...

This paper demonstrates that disturbances to supplies or demands for internationally traded goods affect exchange-rates differently than do disturbances in markets for nontraded goods. The paper develops a stochastic two-country equilibrium model of exchange rates, asset prices, and goods...

This paper shows how open-economy implications of alternative business-cycle models can be used to discriminate between those models. Open-economy versions of two well-known models are presented: a model with predetermined nominal wages and a model in which nominal disturbances are misperceived...

This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a non-zero probability that the policymaker's response to a speculative attack on official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls,...

With some models of money and a representative-agent there is no reason for monetary trade because identical individuals can consume their own production. Lucas proposed a parable involving differentiated products in a cash-in-advance model to avoid this problem. This paper studies Lucas?s...

This paper incorporates international capital flows into a two-country, monetary-general-equilibrium model of asset prices with investment and production. We use the model to calculate theoretical covariances between investment, the current account, the exchange rate, and the terms of...

This paper discusses the dynamic behavior of exchange rates, focusing both on the exchange rate's response to exogenous shocks and the relation between exchange-rate movements and movements in important endogenous variables such as prices, interest rates, output, and the current account. Aspects...