An algorithm is presented which provides a complete solution to the optimal estimation problem for time-varying parameters when no proper prior distribution is specified. The key ideas involve a combination of the information-form Kalman filter with the two-filter interpretation of the optimal...

We study the problem of an investor who buys an equity stake in an entrepreneurial venture, under the assumption that the former cannot monitor the latter's operations. The dynamics implied by the optimal incentive scheme is rich and quite different from that induced by other models of repeated...

Over the last three decades there has been a dramatic increase in the size of the financial sector and in the compensation of financial executives. This increase has been associated with greater risk-taking and the use of more complex financial instruments. Parallel to this trend, the...

We consider the causes of international capital flows. Since capital flows are extremely persistent, we argue that their drivers must be persistent, too. We think the most compelling candidates are demographic trends, tfp differences and financial frictions. In this paper we focus primarily on...

In this paper we describe the important features of executive compensation in the US from 1993 to 2006. Some confirm what has been found for earlier periods and some are novel. Important facts about compensation are that: the compensation distribution is highly skewed; each year, a sizeable...

During the period from 1880 to 1950, publicly managed retirement security programs became an important part of the social fabric in most advanced economies. In this paper we study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. We describe a model economy in which demographics,...

Since the early 1990's the growth rates of the four largest European economies—France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—have slowed. This persistent slowdown suggests a low-frequency structural change is at work. A combination of longer individual life expectancies and declining...

For decades credit rating agencies were viewed as trusted arbiters of creditworthiness and their ratings as important tools for managing risk. The common narrative is that the value of ratings was compromised by the evolution of the industry to a form where issuers pay for ratings. In this paper...

The identifiability of reduced form econometric models with variable coefficients is investigated using the control theoretic concepts of uniform complete observability and uniform complete controllability. First, a variant of the state space representation of the traditional reduced form is...

The Agricultural Time Series-Cross Section (ATICS) dataset described in this Working Paper is based on the annual crop and livestock statistics collected by the United States Department of Agriculture. These statistics, scattered through a wide assortment of published and unpublished USDA...