We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we...

The consumption based asset pricing model predicts that excess yields are determined in a fairly simple way by the market's degree of relative risk aversion and by the pattern of covariances between percapita consumption growth and asset returns. Estimation and testingis complicated by the fact...

Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM) balance and payments are indexed using market-observable house price index in an economic environment with prepayments. Our main results include: (a) explicit modelling of repayment and interest-only CWMs; (b) closed form formulas for mortgage payment and...

Questionnaire surveys undertaken in 1988 and annually from 2003 through 2014 of recent homebuyers in each of four U.S. metropolitan areas shed light on their expectations and reasons for buying during the recent housing boom and subsequent collapse. They also provide insight into the reasons for...

We re-examine the links between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-seven year period, 1975 through 2012Q2. Using techniques reported previously,...

This paper explores the history of inflation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the financial crisis of 2008. Breakeven inflation rates, calculated...

Real stock prices seem to overreact to changes in long-term interest rates. That is, real stock prices drop when long-term interest rates rise (and rise when they fall) more than would be implied by a rational expectations present value model where expectations are based on a vector...

Simple efficient markets models imply that the covariance between prices of speculative assets cannot exceed the covariance between their respective fundamentals unless there is positive information pooling. Positive information pooling occurs when there is more information, in a sense defined...

In a questionnaire survey we asked Japanese institutional investors to recall what they thought and did during the worldwide stock market crash in October, 1987. The results confirm that the drop in U. S. stock prices was the primary factor on their minds, and other news stories in the United...

A broad exploratory data analysis is conducted to assess the promise of a kind of model in which long-term asset prices change through time primarily due to consumption related changes in the rate of discount. Aggregate consumption data are used to infer ex-post marginal rates of substitution....