We implement a new approach for the identification of news shocks about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future variation...

We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...

Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has...

We study the determinants of the dollar/pound real exchange rate from 1879 to 1914 focusing on the role of fiscal policy. We present a simple dynamic model of the real exchange rate to frame our analysis. The econometric results are based upon the decomposition of the sources of the innovation...

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy on the real exchange rate. The short-run impact of various types of fiscal measures are considered as well as the dynamics of adjustment to long-run steady states. The analysis and related simulations suggest that the...

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policies on the evolution of real rates of interest and real exchange rates in the interdependent world economy. We construct an analytical framework suitable for a detailed examination of the various channels through which these variables are influenced...

This paper presents some empirical results on the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy and the real exchange rate in the G3 countries since advent of floating exchange rates. This subject is of some interest given the recent shift to fiscal surpluses in the US, the annual announcement of...

In this paper a model that analyzes the interaction between changes in commodity export prices, money creation, inflation, and the real exchange rate in a developing country is developed. The model is then tested using data for Colombia. A number of experts have argued that the fluctuations of...

This paper discusses exchange rate issues in advanced and in developing countries. For the determination of exchange rates among industrialized countries the key question is the following: What is the right framework -- the monetary approach, the equilibrium approach, the new classical approach...

This paper deals with the relation between commercial policy and "the" equilibrium real exchange rate. The paper clarifies the meaning of real exchange rate by comparing five different definitions that are currently found in the literature, The analysis focuses on the effects of an economic...