to have dealt with the volatility better. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It …Even though Australia has experienced frequent and large commodity export price shocks like the Third World, it seems …

trade increased the colonists' ability to buy imports over time, especially after 1740. Although the export sector performed … two time series to serve as indicators of broader changes rather than considering the export sector as a whole. Here we … present new comprehensive export measures for the middle colonies. We find that aggregate exports in constant prices grew very …

price volatility or specialization dominates terms of trade and thus aggregate volatility in poor countries is thus …Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know … that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over …

policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a sample of 74 countries, both developed and developing. It finds evidence that … booms in the terms of trade do not necessarily lead to larger government surpluses in developing countries, particularly in …

Persistent differences in interest rates across countries account for much of the profitability of currency carry trade … finished goods. This pattern arises in a complete-markets model with trade specialization and limited shipping capacity … producers. Empirically, a commodity-based strategy explains a substantial portion of the carry-trade risk premia, and all of …

. The framework of the analysis is a small open economy with abating exchange rate and endogenous terms if trade, in which … current-account surplus. The terms of trade between foreign and domestic finished goods always improve in the long run …

The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output … and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts … for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies …

In this paper we explore the effect of trade policy on productivity and welfare in the now standard model of firm … economy that takes as given the price of imports and the demand schedules for its exports (a quot;small economyquot;). We … first establish that welfare can be decomposed into four terms: productivity, terms of trade, variety and curvature, where …

We illuminate the relationship between optimal firm pricing and optimal trade policy by exploring a generalized model … are similar we find little opportunity for small countries to improve their terms of trade through trade distortions …

-reducing terms of trade volatility was the other. Between 1820 and 1870, terms of trade volatility was much greater in the poor … from 1870-2000, we know that terms of trade volatility lowers long run growth in the poor periphery, and that the negative … impact is big. Given that terms of trade volatility in the poor periphery was even bigger during the century before 1870, it …